ADVISORY PROJECT Climate change adaptation on the island of São Tomé In 2010-2011, UNESCO-IHE carried out an advisory project for the Republic of São Tomé and Principe to identify adaptation interventions for reducing the vulnerability of the São Tomean coastal communities to climate change impacts. Funded by the World Bank’s Global Environmental Facility, the project was carried out in collaboration with Deltares and a team of local consultants. The islands of São Tomé and Principe are located in the Gulf of Guinea on the African west coast. The former Portuguese colony is Africa’s second smallest nation, with a total area of 1,001 km2 and a population of about 166,000 inhabitants. The interior of the island is covered in tropical forest and large cocoa and coffee plantations established during the colonial occupation. The small villages along the coast have historically suffered from frequent inundation and coastal erosion. Flooding and erosion damage has increased in recent years due to increased storm intensity and significant shifts in the duration and intensity of the rainy seasons, which have begun to overlap the storm season. The livelihood of the people living in these villages mainly depends on fishing, subsistence farming and small businesses. From the analyses and interactions with local population, it became clear that the problems faced by the coastal communities might be intensified by climate change, but are to a large extent related to the institutional context of the country. The people inhabiting the coastal villages are mostly descendants of escaped slaves who have historically been excluded from economic developments and access to natural resources such as the fertile inlands. As such, they live on the narrow coastal strips, sometimes literally on the beach, with limited opportunities to improve their livelihood. Over time, government and aid agencies have provided services such as water pumps, schools, clinics and roads. Stakeholder consultation workshop in Ribeira Afonso, São Tomé On behalf of the Ministry of Public Works and Natural Resources of this small island nation, the UNESCOIHE and Deltares project quantified contemporary and potential future river and coastal inundation and coastal erosion hazards driven by climate change, using data analysis and sophisticated hydrological and coastal numerical modelling. The project is an excellent example of how a variety of existing modelling methods could be strategically used to quantify coastal inundation and erosion hazards in a data-poor study area. These hazard estimates were then used in conjunction with a socio-economic study of the target coastal communities to produce risk assessment maps for the village infrastructure and productive assets. Subsequently, potential adaptation measures were identified via a series of consultations with the local population and key informants, following the principles of participatory coastal zone management. Malanza village, São Tomé 18 Nevertheless, the locations of these villages remain (increasingly) vulnerable to flooding. Moreover, the project revealed that the non-maintenance of coastal palm plantations following the collapse of the colonial institutional structure may have contributed to increased erosion of Santomean beaches. Old maps show coastlines dotted with palm trees that have disappeared in the last three decades, potentially exposing the villages to intensified hazards from the sea. The proposed adaptation measures therefore include a combination of institutional and technical aspects, including comprehensive spatial planning, relocation of villages, diversifying livelihoods, replanting coastal trees, improving drainage systems and the construction of river and sea walls. The study recommends that the implementation of these measures should be done in close collaboration with the local communities and responsible authorities to ensure their needs are appropriately addressed and that institutional structures should be set up to maintain the implemented adaptation measures into the future. r.ranansinghe@unesco-ihe.org or j.kemerink@unesco-ihe.org
PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT Flood waters from the Po river rise creating an emergency situation October 16, 2000 in Turin, Italy. Cultivating a culture of risk prevention Risk prevention, reduction and management play a crucial role in reducing human losses and economic damages caused by natural disasters around the globe. The KULTURisk project aims to cultivate a European culture of risk prevention by assessing the socio-economic benefits of risk prevention techniques and transferring that knowledge to policymakers and practitioners. A literature review addressed three aspects: risk prevention, prevention measures, and risk communication. The aim was to identify knowledge gaps and propose further research. One issue revealed by the literature review is a potential conflict between national and EU legislation on water management and flood prevention. National laws and regulations already in place before the Water Framework Directive, the Flood Directive and other relevant legislation entered into force may cause complications during implementation, particularly in the definition of responsibilities and institutional competences. Where flooding was once a problem addressed primarily by engineers, current approaches combine engineering, environmental science, and socio-economic aspects in an integrated and sustainable approach to flood management, concentrating on hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. However, stakeholders are often largely left out of the equation, and community participation is only visible during the final selection of risk management measures. Risk perception amongst local stakeholders relies more on qualitative dimensions that are more complicated to assess. Research opportunities include assessing the factors that influence risk perception, e.g. the immediacy of an adverse effect. Increased global interdependence underlines the necessity of cooperation, coordination and information exchange on early warning systems (EWS), which should be properly integrated into policies and risk management plans. Effective communication of EWS information to the public and to the scientific community makes people better prepared to cope with emergencies. The intangible costs of natural disasters are controversial to monetize, but must be identified to assess the total burden that a disaster places on society and the affected ecosystem. Total cost comprises all direct, indirect, tangible and intangible costs. A cost-effectiveness approach is more appropriate for a comprehensive assessment of risk prevention measures. Appropriate land-use planning coupled with building codes and individual flood proofing provide methods for reducing risk, whereas flood protection measures and EWS can protect properties in flood-prone areas. Insurance and other similar mechanisms of risk transfer can create incentives for risk reduction in risk-prone areas, but these mechanisms face significant obstacles. Although flood insurance is provided in many European countries, availability, structure and coverage of insurance and risk transfer policies varies widely, as do government involvement and market penetration. Visualizing flood hazard as a probability accounts for uncertainty in the modelling process. There is a common perception that decision makers would prefer deterministic binary maps over probabilistic maps, mainly because uncertainty estimation in modelling water-related hazards is still under development. Further research is needed on the potential value of probabilistic maps and how they are perceived by different actors. www.kulturisk.eu Further research The KULTUrisk project is currently working on the risk prevention policy framework and developing a baseline for the application of risk-based methodology in various risk prevention measures. Moreover, preparations are underway to communicate standard risk prevention methods to decisionmakers, stakeholders and end users, which will be compared later with improved risk prevention methods. Facts & figures • Funding EC FP7 Project • Budget Over 4.4 M Euros • Leading Organization UNESCO-IHE • Project Coordinator Giuliano Di Baldassarre g.dibaldassarre@unesco-ihe.org • Project Manager Leonardo Alfonso Segura l.alfonso@unesco-ihe.org 19 © Getty Images
r.ranansinghe@unesco-ihe.org, j.kemerink@unesco-ihe.org, http://www.kulturisk.eu, g.dibaldassarre@unesco-ihe.org, l.alfonso@unesco-ihe.org,
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